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For a brief period, Trump seemed to take a firm approach regarding the Ukrainian conflict. Following delivering statements of "significant consequences" in August in case Vladimir Putin continued blocking peace discussions, Trump finally enacted major restrictions on Russia's two largest oil companies, Lukoil and Rosneft. This move significantly affected Putin's capability to fund his aggression in the region.

However, through his recently unveiled 28-point peace proposal for Ukraine, reportedly developed by American and Russian diplomats without Ukraine's or EU involvement, Trump has apparently returned to his favorable to Russia stance.

Benefiting Aggression

Trump's initiative would effectively favor Putin for occupying Ukraine while putting Ukraine's political freedom in danger. Although strong proclamations that "Ukraine's independence will be upheld", significant aspects of the initiative effectively weaken that same sovereignty. What represents a Moscow's wish would probably be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Reflecting his real-estate past, Trump continues to consider the situation in Ukraine as a simple territorial dispute, implying handing Russia a part of Ukrainian soil will please the leader. But, Russia's war is not merely about occupying a destroyed region of economically weakened area in Ukraine's east. Rather, it is about the nation's democratic governance – and the Russian leader's clear intention to weaken it so it ceases to acts as an appealing example for the Russia's population of the responsible leadership that his growing autocracy prevents them.

Land Surrenders

Although freezing in status the presently divided Ukrainian provinces of these areas, the proposal would compel Ukraine to surrender the whole this eastern territory. Aside from rewarding the Russian Federation with territory that its forces have been failed to seize in more than a ten years of warfare, this surrender would leave Ukrainian defensive positions severely undermined.

Donetsk is the location of the nation's highly-touted "fortress belt", the entrenched protective structures that are a key impediment to Russian advances. The proposal would have Ukraine surrender these defenses, providing Russian forces a open way to the capital in case he eventually opt to renew the hostilities.

Armed Forces Limitations

Additionally, in a action that would enable additional hostilities simpler for the Russian military, the plan would force the nation to diminish the scale of its armed forces from their present 800,000 to 850,000 troops to a cap of 600,000. Notably, Trump's plan sets no such restrictions on Russia's military.

Seemingly as a concession to Putin's efforts to characterize Ukraine's democratically elected leadership as extremists, the plan states: "All radical belief system and activities must be condemned and banned." As if to emphasize this aspect, it requires that "The nation will hold political contests in 100 days" of a ceasefire agreement. However, Trump sets no obligation that Putin endanger his authoritarian rule by allowing elections in Russia.

Protection Guarantees

Certainly, the plan includes Russia promise not to "invade other states" and to "incorporate in regulation its policy of non-violence towards the EU and Ukraine". However given that Putin has violated similar agreements in the past – for example the 1994 agreement, in which Russia pledged to honor Ukraine's borders in return for relinquishing its Soviet-era atomic arms, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Moscow committed to a truce and a return of seized land in eastern Ukraine to Ukrainian control – why should we believe Putin now?

This explains the Ukrainian government has been so insistent on western defense commitments. Although the proposal promises a "strong coordinated armed reaction" if Russia renew its aggression, and states that "Ukraine will receive dependable protection assurances", the particulars vary from fuzzy to concerning. The initiative would not only deny Ukraine accession to NATO but also prevent Nato members from stationing troops on Ukrainian territory, effectively preventing the security presence, likely headed by Britain and France, on which Ukraine had been counting to deter Putin from replenishing his weakened military, rearming, and attacking again.

International Concern

An additional parallel deal reportedly would provide the nation with a Nato-style protection assurance, in which any subsequent "major, deliberate, and sustained armed attack" by Russia on the country "will be treated as an act of war threatening the tranquility of the transatlantic community." This indicates a armed reaction. Yet different from a strong Ukraine's armed forces – Ukraine's best defense against future Russian aggression – the credibility of the side agreement would depend on the commitment of Nato leaders, like Trump, to respond through arms to Russia's hostilities, something they have {not