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Only two days prior to the NYC mayoral election, Michael Lange issued a bold forecast – going beyond who would win overall, but precinct by precinct. Lange, an expert in elections born and raised in New York City, devoted over a decade in progressive politics and has become something of a well-known figure recently for his deep dives into municipal statistics and voter surveys.

He published his highly detailed forecast map – which correctly forecast that Zohran Mamdani was victorious while missing Andrew Cuomo’s strong performance – on his newsletter, his platform. Lange has a flair for clever terms. He highlighted, for instance, the divide between the “commie corridor”, stretching from Park Slope to Bushwick to Astoria, where he forecasted (correctly) that Mamdani would win by huge margins, and the conservative-leaning zone on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. In those areas, “the Free Press and Wall Street Journal surpass the New York Times” in readership and the majority of electors favored Cuomo, campaigning as a conservative-courting independent.

Election Night Trends and Unexpected Results

What was your night?

It was necessary because they were dropping approximately 200K ballots into the system frequently! I felt somewhat anxious initially: Mamdani led the early vote by 12 points, but there were two big batches of ballots added after that and his lead dropped from 12% to 8%. I was worried.

You know, there was a world where yesterday turned out somewhat badly for him, in which the opponent would have basically doubling his votes from the earlier contest. However Mamdani added half a million supporters to his primary coalition, and this was critical why he won. He went out and greatly broadened his base from the first round.

Expanding Support

Where did the mayor-elect get additional support from?

He built the alliance that progressives always wanted to build: it’s multiracial, youthful, tenants and it’s people squeezed by affordability. He gained significantly with Black and Hispanic voters, working- and middle-class voters, compared to the primary. Additionally he boosted his base of left-leaning activists, youthful radicals, and Muslims and south Asians. Victory required without making those significant inroads.

He created the alliance that the left always wanted to build: diverse, youthful, renters and residents struggling with costs

There were also a number of Trump/Mamdani voters – is this significant?

It’s definitely a real thing, confined to working-class Latinos, south Asians and Islamic voters. Voters in ethnic enclaves that went for the former president last year went for Zohran this year. However I wouldn’t say he was winning over Caucasian laborers and Maga voters.

Turnout and Impact

A major development of the election was the sky-high participation. Who benefited?

Each candidate. Participation was significantly higher than I had expected. I figured it could exceed 2 million, but it reached 2.3M – that is a lot of darn voters. There was a decent anti-Mamdani block, energized, but the Mamdani base was equally driven, and that was enough to secure victory.

You predicted he’d exceed half the ballots. Is he likely for that?

Currently it appears he’s favored to get over half. He’s at just over 50% but there’s still around 200K ballots uncounted as of Wednesday morning. Thus it’s not it’s definitive, but I think probable, and I wish he does so afterwards none can claim Sliwa was a spoiler.

Republican Collapse

Curtis Sliwa, the Republican candidate, is the other big story. His support completely collapsed.

He didn’t win a single precinct in any area. Not even one neighborhood in the borough, which is like an 88% Trump area. That truly surprised me. The independent held very white areas, affluent zones and devout communities, and plus gained all of these Republicans on the island with a high participation. I think occurred a lot of strategic balloting by GOP voters. This happened before the former president tweeted his support for Cuomo, but that definitely helped. It might have changed the outcome if Mamdani’s coalition hadn’t grown.

The “Commie Corridor”

Regarding your much mentioned left-wing base – was support for the candidate overwhelming in those areas of Brooklyn and Queens?

In my view existed a little dilution of the commie corridor in certain places like Astoria or Greenpoint that have more older white ethnic folks. There, for example, the property owners and homeowners all went for Cuomo. So there was a little resistance. But no, largely the commie corridor is another huge reason why Mamdani prevailed – he was polling between high percentages in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Community Support

Prior to the vote we reported on if Mamdani was making inroads with the community. Is there any suggestion that he succeeded?

Exist neighborhoods with many secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – like specific locales – where he did well. But in the affluent districts like the Manhattan area, his position on Israel definitely mattered there. Similarly in the more middle-class Jewish areas including Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Bronx areas – they all leaned the independent. Plus, there are Jewish immigrants from Eastern Europe in the borough, who were pretty staunchly Cuomo. Therefore I don’t know if there were crazy narrative-busters here, but he retained left-leaning areas and including sections of the Upper West Side by big margins.

Long-Term Significance

Has Mamdani rewritten what New York represents in politics? Will progressive base serve as a springboard for progressive contenders?

Absolutely, it’s not accidental that key political leaders from the left come from a few areas in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I’m sure that there will be more of that – people will come from these neighborhoods to be elevated nationally.

But I believe that every city in America could develop similar progressive hubs. Cities are the epicenters of progressive influence in the nation – since youth reside there, people rent and they represent locales where individuals struggle by the disparities we face.