Keir Starmer's Backers Initiate 'Halt Andy Burnham' Campaign to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Commons Re-entry
Key supporters of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly started a coordinated campaign to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a return to parliament. This action comes after the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has triggered an impending by-election.
Serious Obstacles in the Selection Procedure
Multiple figures on the party's powerful NEC have reportedly suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection process. This is largely due to the significant number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are keen to head off any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour party machine reportedly mobilised following the announcement of the MP's intended departure, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the substantial expense and political risk of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Last year, he prompted anger in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he remarked that many MPs had encouraged him to run for the Labour leadership.
It has long been believed that he is seeking a return to parliament to potentially stand for the party leadership should a contest to Sir Keir emerge. However, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the level of any scheming, suggesting he is passionate about his job as mayor and would solely re-enter national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Political Landscape and Poll Ratings
Amid polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only prominent Labour figure with consistently positive public approval ratings.
Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, several hurdles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then win the byelection against competition from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all before any potential leadership challenge.
Efforts to Block Burnham
High-ranking Labour figures have said that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already under way, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself commented that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to cease discussion of potential leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
NEC members have allegedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.
Several sources also shared concerns about Nigel Farage’s party potentially fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.
Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. There is also speculation the body could enforce an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.
Yet, one Burnham ally warned against presuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.
The unions hold a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now keeping their counsel, insiders indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as interference from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The constituency in question has a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform is expected to launch a significant challenge, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from independent candidates.
If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the parliamentary party.
The departing MP stated he was resigning due to deteriorating health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He also remains subject to a parliamentary standards investigation related to his membership in an offensive online group.