Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and caused chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage with the basics. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses something to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
