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Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in Holland, with current polling data indicating that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again win the most seats, although experts believe the party is unlikely of joining the future coalition.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which in the last election pulled off a surprise top result and established a multi-party all-conservative government that collapsed within a year, is now slightly leading in surveys and is forecast to secure between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-member house of representatives.

However, PVV's popularity has dipped since 2023, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not forming a government with the PVV leader, who triggered the fall of the previous government in the summer over disagreements concerning his radical anti-refugee proposals.

Key Contenders and Projections

At the end of a election period focused on issues such as migration, medical expenses, and the country's acute housing shortage, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, projected to win between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the centrist D66, predicted to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is anticipated to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the PVV, VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all projected to lose seats, with some experiencing significant declines.

Voting Process and Political Division

Under the proportional Dutch system, securing just 0.67% of the vote yields a party one MP. Of the 27 parties contesting the election – including parties for the over-50s, youth parties, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and sports parties – as many as 16 could enter the legislature.

This high degree of division ensures that no one party is ever likely to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by multi-party governments – typically composed of four parties in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the his party ends up as the biggest group yet is shut out of government. But, opponents and experts argue that winning the most seats does not assure government participation and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

While the final outcome is uncertain and coalition talks could take several months, analysts suggest that following the most extreme government in its recent history, the future government is expected to be a broad-based coalition headed by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, began operations at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable exit poll is expected soon after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will test possible coalitions that could command a majority in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must face a vote of confidence in parliament before assuming power.