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China has sent its coast guard into the maritime area of the Diaoyu islands and military drones near outlying Japanese territory as Beijing ramps up tensions following the Japan's leader's comments regarding Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

This past Sunday, the China's maritime patrol announced that its ships carried out a “lawful patrol operation” through the waters of the Diaoyu islands, which are administered by Japan but also claimed by Beijing.

“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 performed surveillance within the territorial waters of the Diaoyu islands. This was a lawful patrol operation conducted by the China coast guard to uphold its rights and interests,” the statement said.

Bilateral Tensions

China and Japan have repeatedly faced off around the islands but the latest activity come amid an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japan's leader, Sanae Takaichi, addressed lawmakers that if China attack democratically ruled Taiwan it could trigger a armed reaction from Tokyo.

That provoked a furious reaction from Beijing, which has indicated it demands a withdrawal from the Japanese official.

Taiwan's Position

Beijing asserts the island as its own territory and plans to incorporate it under what it describes as “unification”. It has left open the use of force. Taiwan’s government and people overwhelmingly reject the idea of Beijing's control – preferring to maintain the status quo without formally announcing independence, but vowing to defend themselves if necessary.

An attack or invasion by Beijing would threaten to spiral into a international confrontation, potentially involving the US and other partner nations including Japan, which has territory just 68 miles from Taiwan.

Military Activity

In Taiwan, the defence ministry reported this weekend that it had detected 30 Chinese military aircraft, seven navy ships and one government vessel, which was probably the maritime patrol, operating around the island over the previous day.

Official charts released showed up to three drones flying between Taiwan and the Japan's territory off its north-east coast, appearing to go unusually near to Yonaguni. Chinese military transits there are occasional, but uncommon, and Beijing's defense operations in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been low in the past month.

Late on Saturday, the defense officials said Beijing had been carrying out another “combined military exercise” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It added the island had sent its own aircraft and ships to track the developments. Taiwan documents these operations a few times monthly as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an continuous strategic pressure.

Diplomatic Pressure

Japan has been facing mounting pressure from Beijing since the Japanese official made her remarks, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in Osaka prompting a formal protest from Tokyo by commenting that “the dirty head that sticks itself out must be cut off”.

China then called in Japan's diplomat for the first time in more than two years, and Beijing's military authorities stated that any Tokyo's involvement would be certain to collapse.

Travel and Education Advisory

Late last week, Beijing cautioned its citizens against travelling to Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “suitable actions”, though it did not elaborate.

Three Chinese airlines said on Saturday that tickets to Japan could be cancelled without penalty.

Adding to the tensions, Beijing's administration on Sunday urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it characterized as an volatile safety situation.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a significant decrease in the number of Chinese students could have a detrimental effect on Japanese universities. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were studying in Japan last year, according to official data. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the single biggest group.

Official Commentary

Earlier this weekend, a Chinese state media editorial charged the Japanese official with performing a political stunt that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a limited skirmish; it would probably involve other powers, including the United States, and could rapidly escalate to a major confrontation with unimaginable consequences.”

Policy Standpoints

The administration in Taipei says only its people can decide its future. Japanese leaders have traditionally refrained from publicly mentioning Taiwan when addressing potential conflicts, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also preferred by Tokyo’s main security ally, the US.

Nevertheless, China’s ruling Communist party says the unification of Taiwan with the People’s Republic of China is “unavoidable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, China has also been escalating its non-military activity and its statements towards the island.